States such as California are certainly experiencing a more ferocious wildfire season this year than a relatively quiet 2023.

Combined CAL FIRE and U.S. Forest Service figures record over 1 million acres burnt in California this year, way above the 308,000 acres recorded in 2023. But this year’s figure is still below the five-year average of 1.28 million acres.

Although the size of wildfires in the northeastern U.S. states does not reach the hundreds of thousands of acres as with the West Coast, such as the Park Fire in mid-July that burned 430,000 acres in Northern California, there are specific issues why wildfires in the more densely populated northeast states pose a major threat.

Related article: Viewpoint: Legislative Action is Needed Now to Reduce Wildfire Risk

The number of wildfires that have impacted northeast U.S. states has seen totals soar past previous years, and the ‘season’ for wildfires in the region has shifted from its traditional springtime (March to May) to a highly unusual late summer/fall period.

October was an intense month for wildfire activity in the northeast region. New Jersey’s state fire service reported on November 13 that they had responded to 537 wildfires since early October, up some 1,300 percent on the same period last year.

The state has responded to some 1,300 wildfires this year, with acreage burned almost tripling compared to last year, with 11,000 acres impacted.

Massachusetts experienced 15 wildfires in October 2023, with 212 in October 2024. Connecticut has seen over 200 fires this fall, most burning between one to five acres.

For the first time in its history, New York City’s fire department has established a brush-fire task force, and in the first two weeks of November, they had tackled 271 fires.

One of the most sizeable fires was between New York and New Jersey state borders, the Jennings Creek fire had burnt at least 5,300 acres, after starting on November 8 at a trail junction near the state line in Sterling Forest State Park.

One 18-year-old firefighter was killed preventing the fire from spreading to the village of Greenwood Lake, Orange County, New York.

Favorable Wildfire Conditions

There have been longstanding fire warnings from West Virginia, and states in New England and the Great Lakes. Favorable wildfire conditions have continued to exacerbate as many states experience severe droughts.

The ground is very dry. For New Jersey, the Office of Natural Lands Management said that in parts of the state, the ground was dry at levels of eight inches deep. Using the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, parts of the state had recorded a score of 748, with 800 representing maximum soil dryness.

Prolonged droughts, not seen for some 20 years, have not eased as the northeast states saw a dry August, September, and October, and very little rain in November. NOAA reported the second-warmest October in the U.S., some 4.9 degrees Fahrenheit above the twentieth-century average.

In Massachusetts, the state experienced its third driest September since 1895, and received just 0.02 inches of rain in October, with the average usually 4.19 inches. November has not given much respite with just 0.25 inches up to November 18.

New Jersey announced its first drought warning since 2016, with cities such as Trenton and Newark recording their longest-ever dry spells, ranging from 36-41 consecutive days without rainfall.

With 29 consecutive dry days in New York City in October, this was only broken when 0.01 inches of rain was recorded in Central Park, Manhattan on October 29. November provided little respite, with the city issuing its first drought warning in 22 years.

New York City’s eight million residents have been asked to conserve water as October and November are pivotal months to replenish reservoirs serving the city, currently around 60-65 percent full, where the average level at this time of year is 79 percent.

New York City’s Fire Department set up its first brush-fire task force, and in the first two weeks of November, had tackled 271 fires.

The northeast states in total have experienced 11,000 wildfires this year so far, the same total as in all of 2023—which was an active year where 138,000 acres burnt.

Moving into December, the northeast states are now seeing winter storms with significant snowfall in places.

Comparisons Between West and East

Compared to the wide open spaces—forests and wildlands in California—a wildfire impacting a northeast state such as New Jersey or New York is a different prospect.

With many densely inhabited towns and cities, close together structures, and smaller distances between towns, fires originating from wildland crossing into the extensive Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) in the northeast have a much greater potential to cause rapid conflagration.

With some 84 percentof wildfires ignited by human activity, higher populated areas increase the risk of fire ignition, with arson implicated in some of the recent fires in the region.

States such as California invest billions of dollars annually in fire suppression and control with tens of thousands of active firefighters and extensive, sophisticated fire-fighting equipment to support them.

This is not the case in the northeast states, many fire services are smaller and do not have the personnel, equipment, or experience to tackle intense wildfires, or battle fires in many locations simultaneously.

There has also been a shift from the traditional spring wildfires, as hotter, drier conditions see fires developing later in the year to the fall, and a subsequent shift in preparing and managing these late-season events.

What does this mean for insurers and risk managers?

Wildfires can certainly happen in many regions across the U.S., but the frequency and intensity of these northeast fires is an outlier, linked to the unusual drier conditions in what is reliably a wetter region than the dry West.

Insurers need to reassess the wildfire risk to the northeast, as thankfully, we have not seen a significant loss of life or damage to property, but the conditions are certainly there.

For risk managers, there is much to learn from their partners in the west, as preparation—whether it is warnings, escape routes, fire awareness, etc. is not as high in the east, or wildfire mitigation measures—effective land management, perimeter clearance or adopting fire resistance in construction, are certainly not mainstream.

With wildfire events soaring 13x in just a month in states such as New Jersey, this offers a chance to build resilience plans for the future.

Beyond the Western States

The increasing wildfire activity across the northeastern U.S. does underscore a need for comprehensive risk modeling that can extend beyond the traditionally fire-prone western U.S. states.

As wildfires continue to present a complex challenge, particularly in densely populated regions of the northeast, the role of advanced modeling tools becomes increasingly critical.

These models serve not only to assess risk but also to guide effective mitigation and adaptation strategies, ensuring communities and businesses can better withstand and recover from wildfire events.

This article originally appeared as a blog post on the Moody’s RMS website. It is being republished by Wells Media with permission from Moody’s.

Find out more about Moody’s RMS wildfire risk models here.

Featured image: Wildfires burn along the New York and New Jersey border in Greenwood Lake, New York, Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez)