For the second time since Hurricane Helene made landfall, AccuWeather has increased its estimate of the total damage and economic loss from the storm.
Now, the weather forecasting firm has put a price tag of between $225 billion and $250 billion on insured and uninsured losses. Both ends of the range are more than double those of an initial estimated range published a day after landfall, which pegged the total somewhere between $95 billion and $110 billion.
Three days later, AccuWeather pushed those numbers up further—to $145 billion to $160 billion, explaining that the first estimate came as Helene’s most significant impacts were still occurring.
The latest update, published a week after landfall, accounts for new verified information, including the loss of life, the immediate and long-term costs of healthcare for storm survivors and injured first responders, extended power outages, infrastructure reconstruction projects for utilities, highways, bridges and railroad tracks, major business and travel disruptions, as well as long-term losses to tourism, technology, renewable energy and other industries across the southern Appalachians and southeastern U.S., according to AccuWeather.
AccuWeather’s estimate also includes the projected costs of repairing or rebuilding infrastructure, including power substations and water treatment plants that were destroyed. The electric grid in some places does not exist anymore.
The updated estimate also includes new reports on damage, loss and disruptions caused by storm surge, flooding rainfall and wind damage in Florida and Georgia. There were also millions of dollars of losses to agriculture, including cotton, peanuts, pecans, tobacco and others from the storm.
Modeling and analytics firm Karen Clark & Co. on Wednesday said privately insured losses from Hurricane Helene will be about $6.4 billion from wind, storm surge and inland flooding in nine states.
The KCC estimate includes damage to residential, commercial and industrial properties and automobiles, as well as business interruption. It does not include boats, offshore properties or National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims.
Risk modeler CoreLogic released a preliminary estimates for the Sept. 26 hurricane on Friday, a day after the storm landed. CoreLogic’s estimates insured wind and storm surge losses in the range of $3-$5 billion. This estimate does not consider losses for precipitation-induced inland flooding and excludes NFIP claims as well as damage to offshore property.
On the same day, Moody’s Analytics estimated that totals for both lost economic output and property damage would fall in the range of $20 billion to $34 billion. Specifically, Moody’s put the dollar value of lost output— “the inability of firms and workers to contribute to the economy” stemming from power outages and closures—at $5-$8 billion, noting that those losses will be felt into the third and fourth quarters even if normalcy returns to the affected regions this week.
Moody’s Analytics has also initially pegged the property damage cost at $15 billion to $26 billion, weighing the downward effects of less expensive housing and fewer homes in the area where Helene made landfall—Florida’s Big Bend—against the wide footprint of the storm across several states.
A more finely tuned estimate of just insured losses will be forthcoming from Moody’s risk modeler RMS in coming weeks, Moody’s said.
Rating agencies Fitch and AM Best are projecting insured losses in excess of $5 billion.
AccuWeather noted that rebuilding and recovery efforts from previous disasters can continue even 10 years after such a damaging storm. Residents and businesses in impacted areas “will need considerable support and assistance in the coming years,” while long-term impacts from flooding could also contribute to health conditions due to exposure to mold, mildew, contaminated flood waters and other hazards, the AccuWeather report states.
Related: AccuWeather Raises Helene Total Damage Estimates by $50B; Insured Loss Estimates Not Ready; KCC Estimates Hurricane Helene Insured Losses at $6.4B ; Primary Insurers Will Absorb $5B+ Hurricane Helene Losses: Rating Agencies
Hurricane Helene was one of the most damaging storms in U.S. history. AccuWeather set forth comparative estimates to other impactful U.S. storms in recent history (adjusted for inflation), starting with Hurricane Ian in 2022. AccuWeather put Ian’s total in the $180-$210 billion range, also listing Hurricane Harvey with a $190 billion estimate and Superstorm Sandy at $210 billion.
Major storms this year included a $28 to $32 billion from Hurricane Beryl and $28 billion in losses from Hurricane Debby, AccuWeather said.
Photo: An uprooted tree in front of a home after Hurricane Helene in Glen Alpine, N.C. (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)