The latest estimates of insurance losses for Hurricane Idalia have moved higher than an initial $2.2 billion estimate released by Karen Clark & Company two days after the storm’s Aug. 30 landfall near Florida’s Big Bend region.

Over the Labor Day holiday, both Verisk and Moody’s RMS published ranges of estimated industry losses, with each putting the low end above the KCC figure.

Verisk estimates that insured losses for wind damage and storm surge for onshore property across Idalia’s track range from $2.5 billion to $4 billion, while Moody’s RMS, a Moody’s Analytics firm, estimates the total private market insured losses to be between $3 billion and $5 billion, with a best estimate of $3.5 billion.

The range calculated by Moody’s RMS includes precipitation-induced flooding. The Verisk range does not.

Moody’s RMS offered a breakdown of its estimates, putting insured wind losses in the $2.2-3.4 billion range, storm surge (excluding NFIP) in the $0.5-1.3 billon range, and estimating an additional $300 million for inland flood (excluding NFIP). Adding everything together, Moody’s RMS said its best estimate of the total private market insured loss within the $3-5 billion range is $3.5 billion, while also estimating an additional $0.5 billion for the National Flood Insurance Program.

KCC also offered a breakdown, putting insured U.S. wind losses at $2 billion and storm surge losses at $200 million. The KCC flash estimate also included a $5 million figure for estimated insured losses in the Caribbean.

Providing more detail on what’s included in their loss estimates, Moody’s RMS said that its private market loss estimates reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, watercraft, and automobile lines of business. They also consider sources of post-event loss amplification, inflationary trends, and non-modeled sources of loss.

Verisk specified that its modeled insured loss estimates include losses to onshore residential, commercial and industrial properties and automobiles for their building, contents and time element coverage, as well as the impact of demand surge. Not included in the Verisk estimates are losses exacerbated by litigation, fraudulent assignment of benefits or social inflation, losses to inland marine, ocean-going marine cargo and hull and pleasure boats, losses to infrastructure, and other non-modeled losses, including those resulting from tornadoes spawned by the storm.

Verisk noted that the majority of the losses will be from damage due to wind.

Damage was more severe in and around the areas where Idalia made landfall, including Taylor and Suwanee counties, Verisk said. Damage ranged from significant loss of roof covers in residential homes to torn-up roof membranes in commercial structures, the modeling firm said in a statement.

Verisk also noted that manufactured homes constitute a significant portion of the residential inventory in the Big Bend region of Florida where Idalia made landfall. Several manufactured homes in these areas saw massive damage, including loss of roofs, damage to wall siding. Near-total destruction to home from both wind and surge occurred in coastal areas.

“A major hurricane similar to Idalia has not impacted this region for over 125 years, since the unnamed hurricane in 1896,” Verisk said.

A significant portion of the building inventory along the track of Hurricane Idalia as built prior to the year 2000, predating International Building Codes, Verisk said, highlighting this as a factor contributing to the severity of damage in the landfall vicinity.

“Relative to last year’s Hurricane Ian, Idalia has impacted far fewer buildings, meaning the overall stresses on the construction industry should be far less as rebuilding gets underway in the coming weeks and months,” Verisk said.

At Moody’s RMS, Julie Serakos, Senior Vice President, noted that Florida’s Big Bend region was largely untested by landfalling major hurricanes prior to Idalia, also noting that much of the building stock affected by Idalia was built before the onset of statewide building codes during the 1990s. “However, wind observations from the event suggest Idalia’s wind speeds were just around the design windspeed levels for the region. In addition, newer roofs on many properties installed in recent years after Hurricanes Irma and Ian should help minimize extensive damage in Florida.”

Jeff Waters, Staff Product Manager, North Atlantic Hurricane Models, said that Idalia could have been much more impactful had the storm taken a different track or not weakened just before landfall. “As a result, the tight gradient of damaging winds combined with limited exposure and low flood take-up rates in the worst-affected area should reduce the overall level of insured losses.”

Sources: KCC, Verisk, Moody’s RMS