With third-quarter earnings reports for publicly traded companies slowing down to a trickle, and FEMA publishing an estimate of NFIP last Friday, Carrier Management has updated a company-by-company list of Hurricane Ian estimates.

The latest figures tally to $20.2 billion, excluding the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s estimate of $3.5 billion-$5.3 billion for the National Flood Insurance Program. Including a $4 billion estimates for NFIP, the total including NFIP Is just over $24 billion. (The midpoint of FEMA’s range is $4.4 billion, but a media statement indicates that the reinsurance program has a $4 billion trigger.)

With no figures available for large national mutual companies, such as State Farm, the largest estimates on our list are generally associated with reinsurers and Citizens. Excluding NFIP, the largest single estimate is Berkshire Hathaway’s $2.7 billion, which consists of $600 million for GEICO, $600 million for other primary operations, and $1.5 billion for the reinsurance operations.

Although Berkshire’s property/casualty reinsurance operations had the largest share of the total, reinsurance turned in a small profit for the conglomerate, while the GEICO and the rest of he primary operations reported combined ratios of roughly 108.

As of Nov. 18, Carrier Management’s running tally also includes a $2.650 billion figure for Lloyd’s, the average of a $2.3 billion-$3 billion range announced by Lloyd’s earlier in the day.

Hurricane Ian Loss Estimates By Carrier ($ Millions)

* Range of net losses provided by company; CM used the midpoint

** Includes catastrophes other than Ian

+ Approximate: Estimated based on loss ratio points and earned premium

Note: Loss figure of $2.4 billion used for Citizens is net of reinsurance (updated 11/15/2022 based on new $3.8 billion direct loss estimate. Related article Florida Citizens’ Revises Ian Loss Estimate to $3.8B, Including Litigation Expenses (insurancejournal.com)

In aggregate, the tally as of mid-November still falls far below industrywide estimates of Hurricane Ian losses put out by modeling firms and rating agencies in the days following Ian’s landfall, which average to around $55 billion.

Hurricane Ian Industrywide Loss Estimates ($ Millions)

Chart Notes: Straight Average used for best estimate where modeler only provided a range; Latest estimate used of overall average of all modelers where company revised or updated estimates

CM and IJ staff reports. Aon report summarized by Insurance Journal’s L.S. Howard