Insured losses from civil unrest can reach levels equal to some natural catastrophes—and the costs are growing every year. Of particular concern this year is the unprecedented “super-cycle” of elections when nearly half the world’s population will go to the polls—which could provide many potential flashpoints across the globe.
Executive Summary
Insurers and reinsurers are responding to heightened risks of civil unrest with better calculations of their probable maximum losses, careful risk pricing, clear contractual wordings, and by using new modeling tools to help grasp this potentially costly risk. Here, International Editor L.S. Howard offers a look at one of the modeling tools—Verisk Maplecroft's SRCC Predictive Model—and an underwriter's view of policy and reinsurance contract wordings that need special attention.Related articles: "Geopolitical, Election Risks Have Insurers on High Alert,"; What Role Does Insurance Play in a Politically Charged Climate?"
There has not only been a trend toward more frequent civil unrest events, but the strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) events are also more severe, according to Torbjorn Soltvedt, associate director at Verisk Maplecroft, a provider of geospatial data, modeling and risk intelligence, in an interview with Carrier Management. He pointed out that four SRCC events had an insured price tag of more than $10 billion: the riots in Chile in 2019, in the United States in 2020, South Africa in 2021 and France in 2023.
The number of claims from SRCC worldwide saw more than a 3,000 percent increase in the past two decades from 2000 to 2020, which are being exacerbated by a rise in polarization among populations and a greater willingness to protest, said Mohit Pande, Swiss Re’s Chief Underwriting Officer Property, in a blog published in March 2024. Flashpoints can run the gamut from poor public services to corruption and authoritarianism, to ill will about the current cost-of-living crisis, “with squeezed consumer budgets, rising inflation, higher food and energy prices, and tax increases all exacerbating the problem,” Pande added.
